What do we call a theoretical statement that connects explanations to real-world observations?

The correct term for a theoretical statement that connects explanations to real-world observations is a hypothesis. A hypothesis is an initial, testable proposition that serves as a foundation for further investigation and experimentation. It typically arises from a broader theory or framework and is designed to be confirmed or refuted through empirical evidence.

In the context of international relations, a hypothesis allows researchers to make specific predictions that can be observed and measured in the real world. For instance, a hypothesis might propose a relationship between two variables, such as how economic sanctions influence the behavior of states. This hypothesis can then be tested with data from actual events to see if the predicted relationship holds true.

Other options such as 'model' refer to structured representations of concepts or systems used in analysis, whereas a 'theory' encompasses a broader set of interconnected hypotheses that explain a phenomenon. A 'conclusion' refers to the result or outcome of an analysis or argument, often derived from the evidence gathered in testing a hypothesis or theory. Thus, a hypothesis plays a crucial role in connecting theoretical ideas to empirical observations in international relations research.