What do we call explanations that predict behaviors will occur in a certain way most of the time given specific antecedent conditions?

The correct choice is probabilistic explanations. These explanations account for the likelihood of certain behaviors occurring under specified conditions, indicating that while these behaviors are expected to happen with regularity, they are not guaranteed to do so every time. This concept acknowledges the influence of various factors that can affect outcomes and showcases a recognition of uncertainty in predicting human behavior or social phenomena.

Taking into account the context of international relations, probabilistic explanations are particularly useful as they help analysts make forecasts about events or behaviors based on historical data and conditions, while also allowing for the possibility of deviations. For instance, a probabilistic approach might suggest that a country is likely to engage in diplomatic negotiations under certain economic circumstances, but it recognizes that unexpected developments could alter that outcome.

Other options, while relevant in their own contexts, do not accurately capture this concept. Deterministic explanations imply that behaviors will always follow a certain pattern without exceptions, which does not align with the inherent uncertainties of human actions. Statistical predictions are often more quantitative and involve numerical analysis, lacking the nuanced understanding of behavior that probabilistic explanations provide. Conditional theories imply a hypothetical relationship contingent upon certain conditions but do not inherently suggest the predictability or the likelihood of behaviors as probabilistic explanations do.